Soil Carbon Transitions (PI)
Machine‑learning estimation of land‑use transitions needed across CONUS to buffer climate‑induced soil carbon emissions.
DOE • 2023–2024Dr. SAGAR GAUTAM
Senior Member of Technical Staff · Environmental Engineer @ Sandia National Laboratories
Soil Carbon • Hydrology • Climate Extremes • Bioenergy • ESMs • Machine Learning
RESEARCH PROFILE
Advancing Soil–Climate Intelligence for a Resilient Bioeconomy
I develop integrated modeling approaches that fuse process-based models, Earth System Models, and machine learning to quantify climate impacts on soils, water resources, greenhouse gases, and bioenergy supply chains. My work spans field to global scales, with an emphasis on benchmarking model predictions against observations and informing decision-support tools for sustainable land management.
Based at Sandia National Laboratories (Livermore, CA), I collaborate across national labs and universities to improve representation of soil processes in large-scale models and to evaluate climate extremes, drought, and land-use transitions affecting soil organic carbon.
Soil Biogeochemistry
Carbon & nitrogen cycling, GHG fluxes, microbial processes, and observational benchmarks for model improvement.
Hydrology & Extremes
Downscaling CMIP6, drought metrics, flood/runoff simulation, and ecohydrologic responses under climate change.
ML & Decision Tools
Reduced-order models, ensemble ML for SOC mapping, and LCA-linked analytics for agricultural & bioenergy cropping systems.
10+
First‑Author Papers
$1.6M+
DOE‑Funded Projects
10+
Years in Modeling
4
University Courses (TA/Co‑Instructor)
PROJECT OPERATIONS
Microbial Dynamics in ESMs (Co‑PI)
Representing soil microbial processes in Earth System Models to evaluate impacts of climate extremes on dryland SOC dynamics.
DOE • 2023–presentSOC Loss Under Warming
Benchmarking ML projections against ESMs suggests CONUS may lose substantial SOC by 2100, guiding mitigation pathways.
ResearchEnsemble Agroecosystem Modeling
We integrate DAYCENT, DNDC, and EcoSYS to predict soil organic carbon (SOC) and crop yield across CONUS. The multi-model ensemble quantifies uncertainty and benchmarks projections for mitigation and adaptation planning.
ResearchSoil Moisture Projections (CONUS)
We fuse machine learning with process-based models to map current soil moisture and project future changes across CONUS under CMIP6 scenarios—capturing spatial patterns, trends, and uncertainty for climate-smart planning.
ResearchReduced‑Order SOC & Yield
Fast surrogates for DAYCENT/ESM outputs to predict SOC dynamics and bioenergy crop yields at policy‑relevant scales.
DevelopmentCircumpolar SOC Heterogeneity
Ensemble ML improves mapping of surface SOC stocks in data‑limited northern regions for model benchmarking.
PublishedCONUS Drought Projections
Downscaled CMIP6 indicates increased drought and extreme events across the U.S. under high‑emission scenarios.
PublishedWatershed Extremes
Ecohydrologic modeling for Goodwater Creek: ensemble approaches to future runoff and drought occurrence.
PublishedSAF Viability & Carbon Farming
Assessing how soil carbon payments and multifunctional landscapes enable carbon‑negative, cost‑effective biofuels.
PublishedJBEI Recognition
Most Impactful Publication Award (2024) for advancing bioenergy and environmental sustainability research.
AwardSELECTED PUBLICATIONS
Permafrost Active Layer (Alaska)
Machine‑learning & process‑based comparison for spatiotemporal ALT variation. Scientific Reports (rev., 2025).
Reduced‑Order Models for SOC & Yield
ML surrogates for bioenergy crops. Carbon Capture Science & Technology (2025).
CONUS Drought & Extremes
High‑emissions scenario analysis of future extremes. Scientific Reports (2023).
SAF Viability
Impacts of carbon farming on sustainable aviation fuel. PNAS (2023).
Full list available on Google Scholar and CV.
TOOLS & MODELS
DAYCENT • DNDC • EcoSYS
SWAT • APEX • MODFLOW • HEC‑RAS
E3SM • CESM (Land Models)
Python • R • MATLAB • HPC • GIS
SQL • ArcGIS • Open‑source Geo
LCA Integration • Decision Support
RESEARCH COLLABORATION
For proposals or collaboration inquiries, please reach me at
sgautam@sandia.gov
Senior Member of Technical Staff, Environmental Engineer — Sandia National Laboratories